Michael Bloomberg is probably running for President

I haven’t blogged on this here, (I haven’t blogged here much at all, sadly) but I’ve made a few comments at other blogs.

With Obama floundering between triangulation and his deep “big government” roots, and Republicans frozen between their Palin-esque roots and an electable candidate, billionaire NY mayor sees a shot at the title. While any independent candidate is a long shot, Bloomberg is not insane. First off, he has a shot, and secondly, even a quixotic campaign can yield benefits for America. The fact that he has cash doesn’t hurt, either.

Bloomberg, in major speech, offers ‘a middle way’

The economic policies that we have pursued to drive this growth have been neither left nor right, liberal nor conservative. Despite what ideologues on the left believe, government cannot tax and spend its way back to prosperity, especially when that spending is driven by pork barrel politics. Federal spending to stimulate the economy had a temporary, positive impact – but we are two years past the economic meltdown of 2008, and unemployment is still too high, the underlying economy is still too weak and the federal deficit is still rising too fast.

At the same time, despite what ideologues on the right believe, government should not stand aside and wait for the business cycle to run its natural course. That would be intolerable, given the enormous unemployment we face, and the worsening job prospects for the 15 million people who are trying to find work.

There you have it. The independent Mayor of New York is starting his play at and independent run for President. Good for him. Here is how I handicap his chances.

Scenario 1 – Obama extremely unpopular in late 2011.

Bloomberg hopes that the Rove/Palin cage match continues to split the right. A Palin nomination means he has shot. A Pawlenty or Daniels nomination means the left splits and the right romps.

Scneario 2 – Obama regains his footing and triangulates back to 50-55 approval by late 2011

Bloomberg’s only chance is that Palin or Romney is the nominee, and he presents a rational middle course.

___

Funny huh? Bloomberg’s candidacy depends on Sarah Palin or Romney winning the nomination. Palin because she is perceived as unelectable and Romney because he actually is unelectable.

Time to lock and load on the best Governor in America, Mitch Daniels, or the close second choice, Tim Pawlenty. My bet is that Bloomberg is serious in any event.

This is the FRAME that wins 2012

“Can you govern yourself, or do you need a Federal Czar to govern your life for you?”

That question should be asked of every interested person who might vote in the next few elections. Everyone.

“Can you find a doctor, a light-bulb, or control the flow of your toilet, or should one of our Federal Czars take that decision out of your hands?”

When framed in this fashion, the answers to these questions probably have a 75-25 pro-freedom response rate, even in today’s electorate.

This “frame” (see Lakoff and Overton Window)  articulates the central message that all Republicans, conservative Democrats, the Tea Parties/Patriots, as well as the think tank types should be shouting from the hilltops.

Once brought to consciousness in this philosophical context, virtually every “self-government” policy initiative can be promoted on the foundation of “self-government”. Most Americans are hard-wired to agree with the conservative view on this. [Read more...]

How to make 2012 a Bloodbath for Democratic Senators

With 23 seats to defend in 2012, and a chance for a few gains in the Senate in 2010, the Democrats could be in deep trouble in Obama’s Reelection Year.

I checked into the races and states, and listed them for you below. If there is proper allocation of resources, the Republican Party should focus on the House in 2010, and the Senate in 2012. If Obama continues his slide (and I see no indication that he won’t), the Republicans should be looking good in 2012.

I placed “Potential Outcome” on the right column. The way I see it, a good crop of candidates running on a good platform would be a huge benefit. If the Dems are actually dumb enough to pass a health plan that only has 38% support in the polls, they will suffer for the next two election cycles. They are practically begging the Republicans to “Run on Repeal.” Now go out and find some good candidates.