Illinois will desperately need an independent conservative candidate to run for governor should Judy Barr Topinka (JBT) win the Republican nomination.

For some of you, this dramatic statement might seem like rhetorical overreach. However, if you think about it (and if you look at the history of independent candidacies), the State of Illinois is perfectly primed for a three-way race.

Furthermore, it is pretty clear that such a race would be a massive boon for conservatives as well as the Republican Party.

Let’s start with the assumption that neither of the three conservatives (Oberweis, Brady, or Rauschenberger) have the grace to drop out in favor of the one with the highest polling numbers on March 1, 2006.

Let us further assume that this allows JBT to win the Republican nomination.

This leaves Illinois voters with a choice between two liberals whose campaigns will attempt to fool enough voters into believing they are moderates. The result of this campaign will almost certainly be the reelection of Governor Blagojevich.

But wait, it gets worse!

With two virtually indistinguishable liberals in the race, large numbers of conservatives will simply stay home on election day. This virtually guarantees that the Democrats pick up seats in both the House and Senate. It is not inconceivable that they pick up veto proof majorities.

What possible scenario exists that would stave off such an outcome? I submit that — should JBT win the nomination — the State of Illinois would benefit greatly from a credible, conservative, independent challenger in November.

This challenger should run on;

1. One or two dramatic, but not extreme, reform ideas. (Constitutional Convention and REAL (not Fake) Tax & Pension Reform come to mind)
2. The rest Republican platform (endorsing most Republican House & Senate candidates)
3. Pro-life and a moderated center-right Marriage position.

This solves numerous problems for Illinois conservatives, as well as for the Republican Party.

First, though a longshot, such a candidacy offers a perfect opportunity to split Illinois’ seemingly powerful “liberal” vote.

Second, a credible third-party challenges dramatically increase voter interest AND voter turnout, which, interestingly enough, tends to move the electorate to the right.

Here are some examples.

1. The Republican Party itself was a 3rd party founded in 1854. In 1860, it won power and maintained it for about 60 years.

2. George Wallace’s Run began the movement of Dixiecrats toward the GOP. The downside has been that the GOP has played footsie with the Dixiecrat’s crypto-racism. The upside has been an increasingly conservative nation under Republican Control.

3. Ross Perot increased voter participation from the low 50s in Presidential races up to 62% in 1992. The night Clinton won, 5 house seats went to the Republicans. Two years later, those re-engaged voters moved the country dramatically to the right. (getting rid of BUSH1 was a blessing, BTW.)

4. On the night that Jesse Ventura was elected, the Republicans took over the Minnesota House, and MN is now trending right. Illinois is trending toward the Grand Jury.

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If you think in terms of Principle, instead of Party or Personalities, it becomes pretty obvious…

Doesn’t it?

This entry was posted on Monday, December 5th, 2005 at 11:21 am and is filed under Electoral Alternatives. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.