Climate, like the stock market, will fluctuate
The Earth Cools, and Fight Over Warming Heats Up
Added to the equations are such measurements as past temperatures, barometric pressure and sea salinity. Calculations about the influence of sunlight are entered. Then various projections of greenhouse-gas emissions are factored in. The computers run the equations and generate projections of global temperatures.
The models are only as good as the information they are fed. One big uncertainty is ocean temperature. Oceans trap huge amounts of heat, and the process by which they release it over time affects the temperature of the planet. But there isn’t a lot of actual data, because the vastness of the oceans makes gathering temperature data costly and arduous.
The success of the models also depends on the soundness of their assumptions. The effects of clouds, for example, are unclear. Depending on their shape and altitude, clouds can either trap heat, warming the earth, or reflect it, cooling the planet. The way that greenhouse gases affect cloud formation — and how clouds in turn affect temperature — remains a subject of debate. Different models treat these factors differently.
Re: Assumptions. For political reasons, everyone assumed that CO2 caused climate change, but if you really think about it. CO2 is much much more likely to follow warming, not the other way around.
Tags: Climate Change
