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Michael Bloomberg is probably running for President

I haven’t blogged on this here, (I haven’t blogged here much at all, sadly) but I’ve made a few comments at other blogs.

With Obama floundering between triangulation and his deep “big government” roots, and Republicans frozen between their Palin-esque roots and an electable candidate, billionaire NY mayor sees a shot at the title. While any independent candidate is a long shot, Bloomberg is not insane. First off, he has a shot, and secondly, even a quixotic campaign can yield benefits for America. The fact that he has cash doesn’t hurt, either.

Bloomberg, in major speech, offers ‘a middle way’

The economic policies that we have pursued to drive this growth have been neither left nor right, liberal nor conservative. Despite what ideologues on the left believe, government cannot tax and spend its way back to prosperity, especially when that spending is driven by pork barrel politics. Federal spending to stimulate the economy had a temporary, positive impact – but we are two years past the economic meltdown of 2008, and unemployment is still too high, the underlying economy is still too weak and the federal deficit is still rising too fast.

At the same time, despite what ideologues on the right believe, government should not stand aside and wait for the business cycle to run its natural course. That would be intolerable, given the enormous unemployment we face, and the worsening job prospects for the 15 million people who are trying to find work.

There you have it. The independent Mayor of New York is starting his play at and independent run for President. Good for him. Here is how I handicap his chances.

Scenario 1 – Obama extremely unpopular in late 2011.

Bloomberg hopes that the Rove/Palin cage match continues to split the right. A Palin nomination means he has shot. A Pawlenty or Daniels nomination means the left splits and the right romps.

Scneario 2 – Obama regains his footing and triangulates back to 50-55 approval by late 2011

Bloomberg’s only chance is that Palin or Romney is the nominee, and he presents a rational middle course.

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Funny huh? Bloomberg’s candidacy depends on Sarah Palin or Romney winning the nomination. Palin because she is perceived as unelectable and Romney because he actually is unelectable.

Time to lock and load on the best Governor in America, Mitch Daniels, or the close second choice, Tim Pawlenty. My bet is that Bloomberg is serious in any event.